一、風險管理概念與原則
風險管理(li)是現代企(qi)業管理(li)中(zhong)不可或(huo)缺的部分。在臺北的風險識別培(pei)訓中(zhong)，首(shou)先會(hui)涉及風險管理(li)概念和(he)原則的內容。
（一(yi)(yi)）風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的定義 這(zhe)是讓(rang)學員對(dui)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)有一(yi)(yi)個基(ji)本的認(ren)知(zhi)框架。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)是指在一(yi)(yi)個存在風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的環境(jing)里(li)，如(ru)何把風(feng)(feng)險(xian)減(jian)至*的管(guan)理(li)過程。它涉及到(dao)對(dui)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的預測、評估和應對(dui)等一(yi)(yi)系列活動。
（二）風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)類和(he)(he)特(te)(te)征 1. 風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)類 - 從性質上可(ke)分(fen)(fen)為純粹(cui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)(he)投(tou)(tou)機風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。純粹(cui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)只有(you)損失機會(hui)(hui)(hui)而無(wu)(wu)獲利(li)可(ke)能的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，例如(ru)(ru)自然災害導致的(de)(de)(de)財(cai)產損失。投(tou)(tou)機風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)則是(shi)(shi)(shi)既有(you)損失機會(hui)(hui)(hui)又有(you)獲利(li)可(ke)能的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，比(bi)如(ru)(ru)股(gu)票投(tou)(tou)資。 - 按(an)照風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)來源(yuan)可(ke)以分(fen)(fen)為外部風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)(he)內部風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。外部風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)如(ru)(ru)市場的(de)(de)(de)波(bo)動(dong)、政策法規的(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化(hua)等(deng)；內部風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)包括(kuo)企業自身的(de)(de)(de)管理不(bu)(bu)善、技術故障等(deng)。 2. 風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)特(te)(te)征 - 客(ke)(ke)觀(guan)性，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)客(ke)(ke)觀(guan)存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)，不(bu)(bu)以人(ren)的(de)(de)(de)意(yi)志為轉(zhuan)移。例如(ru)(ru)，地震等(deng)自然災害風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，無(wu)(wu)論人(ren)類是(shi)(shi)(shi)否希望(wang)它(ta)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，它(ta)都(dou)存在(zai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能性。 - 普遍(bian)性，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)存在(zai)于社會(hui)(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)(de)各(ge)個(ge)領域和(he)(he)各(ge)個(ge)層面(mian)。無(wu)(wu)論是(shi)(shi)(shi)企業的(de)(de)(de)經營(ying)活(huo)動(dong)，還是(shi)(shi)(shi)個(ge)人(ren)的(de)(de)(de)日常(chang)生(sheng)(sheng)活(huo)，都(dou)面(mian)臨著各(ge)種各(ge)樣的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。 - 不(bu)(bu)確(que)定性，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間、地點、形式和(he)(he)規模等(deng)都(dou)是(shi)(shi)(shi)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定的(de)(de)(de)。例如(ru)(ru)，一場疫情的(de)(de)(de)爆發(fa)時(shi)間、傳播范圍(wei)和(he)(he)嚴重程(cheng)度在(zai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)之前(qian)難以*預測。
（三）風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理的(de)重(zhong)要性及影響 風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理對(dui)(dui)于(yu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)穩(wen)定發(fa)展至關(guan)重(zhong)要。有效的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理可以保護企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)資產安全，提高企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)競爭力。例(li)如(ru)，一家企(qi)(qi)業(ye)如(ru)果能(neng)夠提前識別(bie)并管(guan)理匯率風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，在(zai)匯率波動(dong)時就可以避免巨(ju)大(da)的(de)財務(wu)損失，從而在(zai)國際市場上保持穩(wen)定的(de)成本優勢。對(dui)(dui)于(yu)個人(ren)來說，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理有助于(yu)保障個人(ren)的(de)財富(fu)安全和(he)生活(huo)穩(wen)定，如(ru)合理規劃家庭保險(xian)(xian)，應對(dui)(dui)可能(neng)的(de)意(yi)外事件。
二、風險識別方法與技巧
（一(yi)）風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別(bie)(bie)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)常見誤區 1. 忽(hu)視潛在(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian) 很多人往往只(zhi)關(guan)注明顯的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，而(er)(er)忽(hu)略了(le)那些(xie)潛在(zai)(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)、尚(shang)未顯現(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。例如，一(yi)家企(qi)(qi)業在(zai)(zai)推出新產(chan)品時(shi)，可(ke)能(neng)只(zhi)關(guan)注市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)當前需(xu)求，而(er)(er)忽(hu)視了(le)新技術可(ke)能(neng)在(zai)(zai)短期內出現(xian)并取代其產(chan)品的(de)(de)(de)(de)潛在(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。 2. 過(guo)度(du)(du)依賴經(jing)驗 完全依靠(kao)過(guo)去(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)驗來識別(bie)(bie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)是不夠的(de)(de)(de)(de)。因(yin)為環境(jing)在(zai)(zai)不斷變化，過(guo)去(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)驗可(ke)能(neng)無法適應(ying)新的(de)(de)(de)(de)情況。比如，傳統的(de)(de)(de)(de)零售(shou)企(qi)(qi)業如果(guo)僅(jin)僅(jin)憑借以往的(de)(de)(de)(de)銷(xiao)售(shou)經(jing)驗來判斷市(shi)場風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，可(ke)能(neng)會在(zai)(zai)電商興起(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)代遭受重大挫折。 3. 缺乏全面(mian)性(xing) 在(zai)(zai)識別(bie)(bie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)時(shi)，如果(guo)只(zhi)從單一(yi)角度(du)(du)出發(fa)，很容(rong)易遺漏重要的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)因(yin)素。例如，在(zai)(zai)評估一(yi)個(ge)工程項目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)時(shi)，只(zhi)考慮工程技術方面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，而(er)(er)忽(hu)略了(le)環境(jing)、社會等(deng)方面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，可(ke)能(neng)會導致項目(mu)在(zai)(zai)實施過(guo)程中(zhong)遇(yu)到意(yi)想不到的(de)(de)(de)(de)問題。
（二）風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)識(shi)(shi)別的(de)(de)(de)(de)方法(fa)(fa)和技(ji)巧 1. 頭(tou)腦(nao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)暴 這(zhe)(zhe)是一(yi)(yi)種集思廣(guang)益(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)方法(fa)(fa)。在(zai)(zai)臺(tai)北的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)識(shi)(shi)別培訓中，會(hui)(hui)組(zu)織學員進行頭(tou)腦(nao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)暴會(hui)(hui)議。參與者可(ke)以(yi)自由地(di)提(ti)(ti)出(chu)各種可(ke)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，不(bu)受(shou)(shou)限制。例(li)(li)(li)如，在(zai)(zai)討論企(qi)業(ye)新產(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)時，不(bu)同部門(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)人員可(ke)能(neng)會(hui)(hui)提(ti)(ti)出(chu)從(cong)研發、生產(chan)、銷售(shou)(shou)到售(shou)(shou)后等各個(ge)環節的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，如研發成本超支(zhi)、生產(chan)工藝(yi)不(bu)完善(shan)、銷售(shou)(shou)渠道受(shou)(shou)阻、售(shou)(shou)后服務跟(gen)不(bu)上等風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。 2. SWOT分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi) SWOT分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)是一(yi)(yi)種綜合考慮企(qi)業(ye)內部優勢（Strengths）、劣(lie)勢（Weaknesses）、外(wai)(wai)部機會(hui)(hui)（Opportunities）和威脅（Threats）的(de)(de)(de)(de)方法(fa)(fa)。通過這(zhe)(zhe)種分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)，可(ke)以(yi)識(shi)(shi)別出(chu)企(qi)業(ye)在(zai)(zai)不(bu)同環境下的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。例(li)(li)(li)如，一(yi)(yi)家小型(xing)科技(ji)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)優勢可(ke)能(neng)是技(ji)術創(chuang)新能(neng)力強(qiang)，劣(lie)勢是資金不(bu)足(zu)。外(wai)(wai)部機會(hui)(hui)可(ke)能(neng)是新興市(shi)場(chang)對(dui)其產(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)需求(qiu)增(zeng)長，威脅則可(ke)能(neng)是大型(xing)競(jing)爭對(dui)手(shou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)擠壓。從(cong)這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)中，可(ke)以(yi)識(shi)(shi)別出(chu)資金鏈(lian)斷裂、被競(jing)爭對(dui)手(shou)擠出(chu)市(shi)場(chang)等風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。 3. 敏(min)感性(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi) 敏(min)感性(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)主(zhu)要用于(yu)評估一(yi)(yi)個(ge)因(yin)素(su)的(de)(de)(de)(de)變化(hua)對(dui)目標結果的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響程(cheng)(cheng)度。在(zai)(zai)金融領域(yu)應用廣(guang)泛，例(li)(li)(li)如，在(zai)(zai)投資組(zu)合管(guan)理中，通過敏(min)感性(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)可(ke)以(yi)確定利率、匯率等因(yin)素(su)的(de)(de)(de)(de)變化(hua)對(dui)投資收(shou)益(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響程(cheng)(cheng)度，從(cong)而識(shi)(shi)別出(chu)相關的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。如果利率的(de)(de)(de)(de)微小變化(hua)會(hui)(hui)導致(zhi)投資收(shou)益(yi)大幅(fu)波動，那(nei)么利率風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)就是一(yi)(yi)個(ge)需要重(zhong)點(dian)關注的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。
（三）實際(ji)案(an)例分析(xi) 通過(guo)(guo)實際(ji)案(an)例的(de)(de)分析(xi)，讓學員更(geng)加直(zhi)觀地(di)掌握(wo)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識別(bie)的(de)(de)具體應(ying)用(yong)技能。例如(ru)，以(yi)某(mou)航(hang)空(kong)公(gong)司為例，在(zai)面(mian)臨油(you)價(jia)(jia)波(bo)(bo)動、航(hang)空(kong)事(shi)故、市場競(jing)爭(zheng)等多(duo)種風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)情況下(xia)，如(ru)何運(yun)(yun)用(yong)上述方法(fa)識別(bie)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。油(you)價(jia)(jia)波(bo)(bo)動可能影響運(yun)(yun)營成本(ben)，這就需(xu)要運(yun)(yun)用(yong)敏感(gan)性分析(xi)來確定油(you)價(jia)(jia)波(bo)(bo)動的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程(cheng)度；航(hang)空(kong)事(shi)故風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)則可以(yi)通過(guo)(guo)頭腦風(feng)暴等方法(fa)，從飛(fei)機維護、飛(fei)行(xing)員培訓、航(hang)線安全等多(duo)方面(mian)找出潛在(zai)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)；市場競(jing)爭(zheng)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)可以(yi)通過(guo)(guo)SWOT分析(xi)來評估自(zi)身的(de)(de)競(jing)爭(zheng)力和面(mian)臨的(de)(de)威脅。
三、風險評估與控制
（一(yi)(yi)）風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估的(de)(de)(de)(de)基本概(gai)念(nian)和(he)方法(fa)(fa) 1. 概(gai)念(nian) 風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估是對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)性(xing)和(he)影響程度(du)進行(xing)分析和(he)評價的(de)(de)(de)(de)過程。例如(ru)，對(dui)(dui)于(yu)一(yi)(yi)場(chang)即將(jiang)到來的(de)(de)(de)(de)臺風(feng)(feng)，評估其(qi)登陸的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)性(xing)以及可(ke)(ke)能(neng)造(zao)成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)財產損失(shi)、人員(yuan)傷亡等(deng)影響程度(du)。 2. 方法(fa)(fa) - 定(ding)性(xing)評估方法(fa)(fa)，主要是基于(yu)經驗和(he)判斷，對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)進行(xing)定(ding)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)描述，如(ru)高、中、低風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)等(deng)級的(de)(de)(de)(de)劃分。例如(ru)，對(dui)(dui)于(yu)企(qi)業的(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)理風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，可(ke)(ke)以根據(ju)(ju)(ju)管(guan)理層的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)力、管(guan)理制度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)完善程度(du)等(deng)因素，定(ding)性(xing)地判斷其(qi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)等(deng)級為中等(deng)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。 - 定(ding)量(liang)評估方法(fa)(fa)，通過數據(ju)(ju)(ju)和(he)數學模型來量(liang)化風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。在金融領域，如(ru)計算(suan)信(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)時，可(ke)(ke)以利用(yong)(yong)信(xin)用(yong)(yong)評分模型，根據(ju)(ju)(ju)客戶的(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)用(yong)(yong)數據(ju)(ju)(ju)（如(ru)收入、資產、信(xin)用(yong)(yong)歷史等(deng)）來量(liang)化其(qi)違約風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)。
（二(er)）風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)的流(liu)(liu)程(cheng)和(he)方(fang)法(fa) 1. 流(liu)(liu)程(cheng) - 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識別(bie)之后(hou)，首先要確定風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)的目標，例(li)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)將企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)在一定范圍(wei)內。 - 然后(hou)制(zhi)(zhi)定風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)，如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)規(gui)避、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)降(jiang)低、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉移和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)接(jie)受等(deng)(deng)(deng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)。以火災風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)為例(li)，如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)果(guo)(guo)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)決定采(cai)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)規(gui)避策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)，可(ke)能會(hui)選擇停止某些高風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的生(sheng)產(chan)活動(dong)(dong)；如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)果(guo)(guo)采(cai)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)降(jiang)低策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)，則會(hui)加強消防設施(shi)建設、員工(gong)(gong)(gong)消防培(pei)訓等(deng)(deng)(deng)；風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉移可(ke)以通過購買保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)來(lai)(lai)實(shi)現(xian)；如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)果(guo)(guo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)的可(ke)能性和(he)影響程(cheng)度都很小，企(qi)業(ye)(ye)可(ke)能會(hui)選擇風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)接(jie)受策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)。 - 實(shi)施(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)措(cuo)施(shi)，并(bing)對控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)效(xiao)果(guo)(guo)進行監測和(he)評(ping)估。例(li)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)，企(qi)業(ye)(ye)實(shi)施(shi)了新(xin)的安(an)全管理制(zhi)(zhi)度來(lai)(lai)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)生(sheng)產(chan)事(shi)故風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，需要定期監測事(shi)故發生(sheng)率(lv)等(deng)(deng)(deng)指標來(lai)(lai)評(ping)估控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)效(xiao)果(guo)(guo)。 2. 方(fang)法(fa) - 工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)方(fang)法(fa)，例(li)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)在工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)中，通過改進生(sheng)產(chan)設備(bei)、工(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)流(liu)(liu)程(cheng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)方(fang)式來(lai)(lai)降(jiang)低風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)采(cai)用(yong)自動(dong)(dong)化設備(bei)代替人工(gong)(gong)(gong)操作，降(jiang)低工(gong)(gong)(gong)人操作失誤的風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。 - 管理控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)方(fang)法(fa)，如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)制(zhi)(zhi)定完善的管理制(zhi)(zhi)度、操作規(gui)范等(deng)(deng)(deng)。例(li)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)，金融(rong)機構通過嚴格的內部審計(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)度來(lai)(lai)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)操作風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。 - 個(ge)人防護方(fang)法(fa)，這主要適用(yong)于個(ge)人面臨(lin)的風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)建筑工(gong)(gong)(gong)人在施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)現(xian)場(chang)佩戴安(an)全帽、安(an)全帶等(deng)(deng)(deng)防護用(yong)品來(lai)(lai)降(jiang)低高處墜落等(deng)(deng)(deng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。
（三）實戰演(yan)練 通過實戰演(yan)練，讓學(xue)員(yuan)親身體驗如(ru)何(he)進(jin)行(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)和(he)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)。例如(ru)，模(mo)擬一個企(qi)業(ye)的(de)供應(ying)鏈管理場景，學(xue)員(yuan)需要識別出供應(ying)鏈中的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，如(ru)供應(ying)商中斷供應(ying)、物流(liu)運輸延誤等(deng)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，然(ran)后運用(yong)所(suo)學(xue)的(de)方法對這些風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)進(jin)行(xing)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)，并(bing)制(zhi)定(ding)相應(ying)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)策略。
四、基于情景模擬的風險識別
（一(yi)）設(she)(she)計不同(tong)的(de)場(chang)景(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)模(mo)擬(ni) 在臺北的(de)風險識別培訓中，會設(she)(she)計多種場(chang)景(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)模(mo)擬(ni)。例如(ru)，模(mo)擬(ni)一(yi)個(ge)商業談(tan)(tan)(tan)判(pan)(pan)場(chang)景(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)，其中可(ke)能存在的(de)風險包括談(tan)(tan)(tan)判(pan)(pan)對手的(de)突(tu)然(ran)(ran)變卦、市場(chang)信息的(de)突(tu)然(ran)(ran)變化影(ying)響談(tan)(tan)(tan)判(pan)(pan)底線等(deng)(deng)(deng)；模(mo)擬(ni)一(yi)個(ge)自(zi)然(ran)(ran)災(zai)害場(chang)景(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)，如(ru)洪(hong)水來襲，企業面臨的(de)風險有(you)廠房被淹、設(she)(she)備損壞(huai)、原材料損失等(deng)(deng)(deng)；模(mo)擬(ni)一(yi)個(ge)金融市場(chang)動蕩場(chang)景(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)，投資者面臨的(de)風險有(you)股票價格暴跌、債券(quan)違約等(deng)(deng)(deng)。
（二）分(fen)(fen)析(xi)模(mo)擬結(jie)果(guo) 1. 從模(mo)擬的(de)商業談(tan)(tan)判場(chang)(chang)景(jing)來看，如(ru)果(guo)談(tan)(tan)判對(dui)(dui)(dui)手突然(ran)變卦，可(ke)能(neng)是因為(wei)其獲得了更有(you)利的(de)市場(chang)(chang)信(xin)息或者內部(bu)決策(ce)發生了變化。學(xue)員(yuan)(yuan)可(ke)以從中學(xue)習到在(zai)談(tan)(tan)判前要(yao)對(dui)(dui)(dui)對(dui)(dui)(dui)手進行(xing)更深(shen)入的(de)調查，以及(ji)準備多種應對(dui)(dui)(dui)方案(an)等經驗。 2. 在(zai)自然(ran)災(zai)害場(chang)(chang)景(jing)中，分(fen)(fen)析(xi)企業在(zai)洪(hong)(hong)水來襲時的(de)應對(dui)(dui)(dui)措施(shi)是否(fou)有(you)效。如(ru)果(guo)廠房被淹，可(ke)能(neng)是因為(wei)企業在(zai)選(xuan)址時沒有(you)充(chong)分(fen)(fen)考(kao)慮(lv)洪(hong)(hong)水風險(xian)(xian)，或者防洪(hong)(hong)設施(shi)建設不足。學(xue)員(yuan)(yuan)可(ke)以總結(jie)出(chu)在(zai)企業規劃和建設過(guo)程中要(yao)充(chong)分(fen)(fen)考(kao)慮(lv)自然(ran)災(zai)害風險(xian)(xian)的(de)經驗。 3. 在(zai)金融市場(chang)(chang)動蕩(dang)場(chang)(chang)景(jing)下，對(dui)(dui)(dui)于股票價格暴跌(die)的(de)情況，分(fen)(fen)析(xi)投資者是否(fou)能(neng)夠及(ji)時止損或者調整投資組合。如(ru)果(guo)不能(neng)，可(ke)能(neng)是因為(wei)缺乏(fa)對(dui)(dui)(dui)市場(chang)(chang)風險(xian)(xian)的(de)準確評估和應對(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)略。學(xue)員(yuan)(yuan)可(ke)以從中學(xue)習到要(yao)加強對(dui)(dui)(dui)金融市場(chang)(chang)風險(xian)(xian)的(de)監測和分(fen)(fen)析(xi)能(neng)力。
五、風險管理工具的應用
（一）傳(chuan)統(tong)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理工(gong)具 1. 保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian) 保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是一種常見的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理工(gong)具。例(li)如，企業(ye)可以(yi)購買財產保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)來防范火(huo)災、盜竊等財產損失風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)；個人(ren)可以(yi)購買健康(kang)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、人(ren)壽保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等來應(ying)對疾病、意(yi)外(wai)死亡等風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。在臺北的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識別培訓中，會(hui)詳細(xi)講解保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的種類(lei)、保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)條款的解讀、如何選擇合適的保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等內(nei)容。 2. 風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)準備(bei)金(jin) 企業(ye)可以(yi)設立風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)準備(bei)金(jin)來應(ying)對可能的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)損失。例(li)如，銀行會(hui)根據貸(dai)款的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程(cheng)度計(ji)提(ti)一定比例(li)的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)準備(bei)金(jin)。培訓中會(hui)涉及風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)準備(bei)金(jin)的計(ji)提(ti)原則、管理和使用(yong)等方面的知識。
（二）現代風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)工(gong)具(ju) 1. 金融(rong)衍生(sheng)品 如期貨、期權、互換等。對于有匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、利(li)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的企業(ye)或投資(zi)者來(lai)說，可(ke)(ke)以利(li)用(yong)金融(rong)衍生(sheng)品進行套期保值。例如，一(yi)家出口企業(ye)擔心匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)波(bo)動影(ying)響(xiang)收益，可(ke)(ke)以通過外匯(hui)期貨來(lai)鎖定(ding)匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)。培訓(xun)中會(hui)介(jie)紹(shao)(shao)金融(rong)衍生(sheng)品的基(ji)本原理(li)、交易(yi)策(ce)略和(he)(he)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)等內容。 2. 風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)軟(ruan)件 隨著信息技術的發(fa)展，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)軟(ruan)件被廣泛應用(yong)。這些軟(ruan)件可(ke)(ke)以幫助企業(ye)更高效(xiao)地進行風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識別(bie)、評估(gu)和(he)(he)控(kong)制(zhi)。例如，一(yi)些軟(ruan)件可(ke)(ke)以通過大數據分析來(lai)識別(bie)潛在風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，培訓(xun)中會(hui)介(jie)紹(shao)(shao)一(yi)些常(chang)見的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)軟(ruan)件的功(gong)能和(he)(he)使用(yong)方法(fa)。
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